Friday, December 7, 2018

Chanukah, Joseph & Ketogenics


Reprise & Update: Miketz: Joseph, The Financial Crisis & Hanukkah

Cowabunga, Buffalo Bob
Howdy Doody Show

In the Torah portion, Mi-ketz, per the Pharaoh’s dream and David’s inspired interpretation, the 7 emaciated cows (representing 7 years of famine) ate the seven fatted cows (symbolizing for 7 years of prosperity) without gaining any weight – establishing germination of the Atkins weight loss diet plan(Schwartz).
2018 update: actually it was also the first Ketogenic Diet.

Holy cow!
Cubs Broadcaster Harry Carey

The Judaic Koan (not Cohen) is all is foreseen yet one has free will.
The 7 prosper years followed by the 7 years of famine was foreseen. Some would say preordained. Yet, Joseph’s faithful actions of storing grain for the 7 lean years is evidence of free choice within the predetermined.
Joseph could have:

·         Done nothing
·         Suggested hedonism
·         Interpreted the dream differently

Of course, there will be hard core determinists who state even Joseph’s recommendation was predetermined. (If so, then determinists why incarcerate criminals as their actions are predetermined per your argument against compatabilism?)
          The present financial crisis (2007) was not without dreams of 7 fatted and 7 gaunt cows. The difference was the actions chosen taken before and since this current challenge.

The ‘Genesis’ of the present financial meltdown was the matchstick of ‘no half sheckel’ – no skin in the game. (2018 Update as well and more importantly NO SOUL IN THE GAME.) The domino effect aside, without ‘skin in the game’ (nor soul in the game!)– ‘a half sheckel’ - foreclosure is an easy option for this type of ‘owner.’
 If the ‘owner’ had 20% of his or her hard earned money/sheckels – skin in the game (instead of 0% or near 0%)– as an original down payment, the house worth less than paid for originally or not, subprime or reset loan being loan modified or not, would the ‘owner’ so easily take a foreclosure or more prone to OWN UP to his or her responsibility??? (1)

No grain was stored during prosperity for the lean years in housing. (Retropective Update: Storing went – against the grain – of immediate gratification) -

Via the Almighty’s inspiration, Joseph foresaw the 7 lean years (famine) following the 7 years of prosperity per the interpretations of both the cow and corn stalk dreams. Making a free (without restraint as Viceroy) willed choice (choosing the desire of enduring tomorrow at the sacrifice of today), Joseph, understanding Enough in contrast to More (2) made provision to endure the downturn storing grain. Rather than managing assets for (More) today and tomorrow– he managed the goal (Enough)– to survive, thrive and even prosper (enriching the Pharaoh further ironically) during the projected lean (unbearable) years.

In financial planning, despite client’s protests of ‘lazy assets with low returns,’ I have suggested, in the past, a minimum of 2 years of living expenses in money markets as well as paying off their house regardless of the Dow making all time records. Herein was the ‘lean cow reasoning’:  to be able to endure the inevitable downturns without having to sacrifice at fire sale and emotional craziness otherwise valuable assets and more importantly their goals. Afterall, why ‘sacrifice’ what you need (Enough) for what you don’t need (More).
Most listened begrudgingly (given the acculturation of a culture of Acquisition r Us – my dog’s bigger than your dog Moreonic thinking). Inoculating with continual ‘drive by naggings’ about Enough (2), most despite their repeated rebuttal objections of “mortgage interest is deductible, and I can get a higher return on my assets” acceded to avoid continual naggings and the dreaded Schwartz, ‘I told you so’ (3) moreso than due to the wisdom of Enough.
Those who didn’t (More-ons) are now, unfortunately, getting a hard Less-on. (4) (It is surprising to me, though out of practice 12 years, that I haven’t been blamed with the More-on complaint of ‘yes, you warned, but it’s your fault – you were not persuasive ‘enough’ yet.)

And now, like the majority of overleveraged Americans, a few have their ass-ets in a crack – their goals jeopardized and failed, scapegoating all except themselves.

Enough to live on; Enough to live for.
ENOUGH, Schwartz

Acquisition may palliate for a while, but it can’t eliminate bodily extinction and the fear thereof. Acquisition of More through it attempts to elongate the anesthesia with ever increasing (More) dosages to get the same palliation and avoidance fails despite more toys, bigger toys to avoid toying with the under lying fear of bodily extinction which is identified as ‘oneself’- ‘my sense of self.’ (I am I because I have……). Having does not endure being – except character.

Assuming faith, there is one thing, a person can take with himself – character – completed, refined, tested.…
Not MORE toys, acquisitions– but character.
Not ‘MORE than’ compared to another – but character derived from the tests (nes) of moral free willed choices(5)

After the leaves have fallen, we return
To a plain sense of things…
The great structure has become a minor house
Wallace Stevens, The Plain Sense of Things

Thus, when the game is over, the king and the pawn both go back into the same box.

So now, the emaciated, withered, wasted cows have come home to moo, Reverend Wrong – and many MORE-ONS are ‘eating the moo,’ as we use to say in Philly -
Having a cow! – per Bart Simpson
Cowabunga! – per Chief Thunderthud on Howdy Doo-dy.
More for more’s sake – a Howdy Doo-dy Don’t
Enough – a Howdy Doody Do

Tonight is Erev Hanukkah – celebrating the festival of light. Having but 1 days portion of oil for light – the light lasted 8 days as the Maccabees defeated the enemy. The miracle of lights?: Enlightening – as less can become Enough.
Miketz, Enough, Hanukkah: –  questions and tests of character.

(1)  - the unholy public policy of enabling liberal democrat pandering criminals who lit the matchstick. As the saying goes, you don’t give a kid a firecracker and not expect him to light it – nor a subprime mortgage.
(2)  – here is the one case where ‘over’ vaccination was necessary given the continual, recurrent, overwhelming backdrop of More Influenza
(3)  – as my father would say, ‘a big person wouldn’t run it saying I told you so.’ I’m short.
(4)  – More, Better, Now, in time, becomes Less, Worse, Later © Jim Schwartz

If All You Know Is A Hammer, Everything Looks Like A Nail


Process vs Content

If all you know is a hammer, everything will look like a nail
Maslow

Stipulating:

Process Consulting: the better understood and diagnosed processes are, the greater the probability for finding solutions whether technical or not (if nothing more spinning of wheels are minimized by process of elimination as well as hammers looking for nails regardless the situation. Note in process consulting the client/patient/congregant – owns the problems.

Content or Expert Consulting: assumes the purchaser/client – congregant knows what kind of product or service he is she is looking for from the ‘expert’ consultant (which further assumes the problem / objective was properly diagnosed (problem) or correctly created (objective) to begin with. Note in content expert consulting, the client – patient – congregant – student outsources the problem on the basis of ‘substitute reliance.

Problem is defined as: a deviation from a standard

          There is failure of success – as behavior (and continued behavior is a function of its consequences).

          Other than Intel, how many companies have cannibalized themselves, regardless their past successes knowing if they continued ‘as is as in the past – they would fail?
          Few.

          The failure of success is not limited to companies but an epidemic in professions, a pandemic amongst the Scholar Barons in academia and regrettably many in the professional edifice complex clergy (‘sages on the stage rather than guides by the side.’)

          Relying on prior experience, knowledge, habit, kiss and make it better even wisdom being the sage brush on the stage (‘happy tails to you?)- “he ‘content’ of expert’s success - process is often ignored (or just winked at aka personal financial planning). Result: misdiagnosis, doing the wrong thing very well/expertly, being ineffective – puzzled with ‘this always worked in the past.’

          Some say they follow ‘a method.’ For example:

  • the scientific method (though less than 39% in one study of medical studies could be replicated)
  • personal financial planners – regardless of compensation method – just give a wink, and nod to ‘process’ – practice from content approach (i.e. which one ((stock, bond, etf, etc)) what kind and comparison (how one did relative to the Dow or S&P)

Hhabit, experience, content knowledge & expertise (plus sounding good with confidence one’s voice that even the professional believes) supersede process – and clients get nailed and the planner eventually crucified.
          (Note: did this essayist eat his own cookin’? See attached of a fully developed as well as simplified process chart  of the Enough personal financial planning process contrast even today the typical ‘more content/expert’  ‘you really ought to do this, right’ so called process. In the Enough processclient ‘owns the problem/objectives’ in a collaboratively process rather than ‘trust me, here’s what you do’ more/content/expert approach masquerading as a process.

Kepner Tregoe Problem Analysis Process

One of two or three process business techniques I value most and used the most is from Kepner Tregoe's Problem analysis in their book The Rational Manager (from the '70's)


First to stipulate per Kepner Tregoe a definition: a problem is a deviation from a standard

That said the criteria around defining the problem is per the following

                                  IS                                        IS NOT
What
Who
Where
When
Why
How

Without defining the IS NOT of the problem - one gets SNOT - a Schwartz original – but that’s a sniffle for another discussion.

There is then potential problem analysis (a topic for another discussion.

          Bottom Line: just as capacity (form restricts) function; process can narrow causes of problems and refine objectives offsetting the failure of success of content/expert’s confining tunnel vision resulting in ‘if all one knows is a hammer, everything looks like a nail.’

Tuesday, October 23, 2018

Torah Portions Confirming God as Shaddai (Enough)



Torah Portions Confirming
God as Shaddai (Enough)

          Per Exodus 16, a manna portion was provided to each Hebrew  daily, twice on Friday – as no manna would provided on Shabbat. Further’more,’ if a Hebrew gathered more than needed (‘for a rainy day’ just in case in reserve?) – the extra would rot with maggots. (1) There is Midrash (Rabbinical JEWbonics – to fill in the blanks) that individually the manna tasted to each Hebrew as desired (i.e. Roast Beef au Jews, Arby’s, Domino’s, and of course A Whopper™ from Burger King Judaism franchise).

          Thus, the manna represents that it is Hashem that provides – and provides what is required. More than what is required becomes adulterated – maggot infested of trying to have more than what Hashem provided and is a test for the Hebrew’s faith that Hashem is ‘enough.’

          After avoiding, praying, even getting ready to fight – splitting the family’s ranks – should Esau attack, Jacob/Israel prevails in giving a huge gift (tribute/bribe/reparation depending on JEWbonics) to Esau. Initially Esau  demurred accepting stating ‘I have plenty’ to which Jacob as Israel replied ‘I have all.’
          All is Shaddai – Shaddai is Enough - in this Torah portion context.

          At the Passover Seder, there are several customs and rituals which are unique i.e: “matzah (the eating of unleavened bread); maror (the eating of bitter herbs); chametz (abstention from eating leaven); b’iur chametz (removal of leaven from the home); and haggadah (participation in the seder meal and telling the story).” There is a  6th & 7th custom family bickering as well as the singing of the song Dayenu.
Each lyric of the song Dayenu begins with the word dayenu. And dayenu – means and invokes ‘it was enough, it was enough!’ in the context of it was enough that God did – what God did – what Shaddai provided….

          The MOREal of the juxtaposition of these three stories from Torah : Hashem in providing daily manna, Hashem in destroying storage of the manna for a rainy day of manna, Hashem as ‘all,’ and Hashem as Dayenu - demonstrates that Hashem is Shaddai – is ‘God, God Almighty, God All Sufficient, ENOUGH.’

          It only took 43 years of practicing, writing, philosophizing about Enough to come to this insight  – which is 3 years beyond what the Hebrews endured in the desert.


(1)- The two loaves of Challah on Shabbat is a custom derived from the double portion of manna allowed for the day before and day of shabbat

Monday, September 3, 2018

Money, Happiness, Subjective Well Being & Sloppiness at The NY Times’


Money, Happiness, Subjective Well Being & Sloppiness at The NY Times’

One thing money doesn’t buy – poverty
Ellis Schwartz, my dad

Stipulating:

Money (the current currency) = goods and services, a store of value for eventual exchange for goods and services
Satis = etymologically is from the Latin ‘satis’ meaning ‘enough’
Happiness = etymologically from ‘happenstance’ meaning ‘by chance’
Well-being = etymologically well = “in a satisfactory manner, Old English wel “ abundantly, very, very much; indeed, to be sure; with good reason – while being = c. 1300, "existence,” “condition, state, circumstances; presence, fact of existing

New research suggests that more money really does lead to a more satisfying life
‘Money Really Does Lead to a More Satisfying Life’
by Justin Wolfers, NY Times

Columnist Wolfers fails to define money & satisfying let alone happiness accepting subjective well being as  assumptive metric basis’s for his conclusion even when citing studies.
Thus, is the metric of subjective well being a measure of palliation? Is one person’s degree of subjective well being – another person’s crying towel – akin to one man’s floor is another woman’s glass ceiling? Even taken in the aggregate of the measure of subjective well being - what does this measure other than subjective well being - not well being?
What is satisfaction per these studies?
How is happiness defined per these studies?

Once again, more and its more-on prophets for profit (a division of self esteem, happiness and participation trophies inc) put the pedal to the medal without any mettle.
Guess the fake news influenza at the Times has infected the Business and Personal Finance section first with just plain sloppiness.

Yes, money doesn’t buy poverty but does it buy undefined happiness, well being, satisfaction or depending on the level of wealth and income just more altered states requiring greater and greater dosages for palliation?
It’s a question of definition which Wolfers conveniently avoids especially given well being is ‘satisfactory existence’ per etymology (as satis is enough) his headline is More Satisfying Life – a contradiction in underlying terms (more vs enough).
Of course, legend has it when Rockefeller was asked what was ‘enough’ he said, ‘a little more.’
Maybe Wolfers is an ancestor.

Tuesday, July 31, 2018

The LESSon of MORE for MORE’s Sake ©


The LESSon of MORE for MORE’s Sake ©

Fatal Addition: More, Better, Now becomes Less, Worse, Later
a.k.a MORE: The Gift That Keeps On Taking---MOREons

Wednesday, July 18, 2018

MOREon's & STUFF



MOREon’s  ‘TURKEY’ STUFFING(c)

Right Stuff             One is Right                                        One is Wrong
(& if RIGHT)                                      (& if WRONG)

Double Stuff          One gets MORE                                One gets LESS
(& if one gets MORE)                      (& if one gets LESS)

Upscale Stuff         One is BETTER                                  One is WORSE
(& if one is BETTER)                         (& if one is WORSE)

Strut Stuff              One is a WINNER                      One is a LOSER                                                                                   if one is a WINNER                               (& if one is a LOSER)

Hot Stuff                 One is GOOD                                     One is BAD
(& if one is GOOD)                            (& if one is BAD)

Full of Stuff         One is WORTHY(2)                           One is WORTHless
(& if 1 is WORTHY)                          (& if  is WORTHless)

Full of S…               One is GODLY                                  One is EVIL

Monday, July 2, 2018

Untold Personal Financial Planning Dirty Little Secrets© #1 Assets under Management (AUM) & Retirement Withdrawal Rates: The Conflicted Dirty Little Secret


Untold Personal Financial Planning Dirty Little Secrets© #1
Assets under Management (AUM) & Retirement Withdrawal Rates: 
The Conflicted Dirty Little Secret

            We fear outliving out money – dreading being beholden, dependent, under other’s thumb, being obliged, having to take sh*t (either with our mouths open or closed), and or catering (when we actually resent).
            And weather consciously or not, asset under management compensated planners prey on this fear – what is called ‘longevity risk.’
            And rightly, so, asset under management planners (as well as others) run ‘monte carlo analysis’ to assess the probability of not running out of money (longevity risk) – usually seeking a 95% (the maximum) probability of not running out of money. (See The Flaw of Averages)
            And yes, stipulating that there is the potential of sequence risk – such that adequate resources could be depleted prematurely due to especially large market declines in the beginning years (like 1973 and 1974).
            And secondly, qualifying that there are inherent conflicts of interest in all methods of personal financial planning compensation be it churn and burn (commissions), hourly (where the client is afraid to call cause the meter is always on – and therefore preventative measures that could have been taken are ‘too late’) etc.
            But the inherent conflict of assets under management compensation impacts, in particular, the withdrawal percentage in retirement of clients – possibly causing the client – in the name of fearing out living their resources and or minimizing their legacy to heir – to under spend.
            And what is the conflict?
            Given the more assets under management the greater the compensation to the planner – the lower the percentage of withdrawal by the client – the more assets under management for the planner’s compensation. (Some planners have even been involved in the creation of trust companies – to ‘capture’ the assets upon a clients’ death – and continue the assets under management compensation of the deceased client for heirs.)
            Furthermore, assets under management becomes a more saleable and scaleable asset in the buy out of the assets under management compensation planner – planning firm.

            But WAIT – like the infomercial would blare – we don’t want to out live our assets!
            True.
            And it is also true, that the only certainties are death, taxes, and one won’t return the rental car having taken it to a car wash before remittance.

There are no solutions, only tradeoffs
Thomas Sowell

            Regardless Bergin’s or Trinity study 4% withdrawal rate let alone someone’s 3.62% etc, we adapt to circumstances. We not only adapt buying chicken breasts at $1.77 when steak is $5.99 – but in entertainment etc. Furthermore, there seems, in general to be 3 phases in retirement: go go (where we may spend more even), slow go (spending reduces), and no go (where spending – yes, other than health) is even further reduces.
            Flexibility isn’t theoretical back testing – but it deals with the real.
            And we rarely give ourselves (please none of the retorts – that was easier when I was in my 30’s) recognition of our adaptability and resourcefulness (including utilization of guilt on progeny). Currencies change, but to our adaptability and resourcefulness (and its flexibility) we give little recognition – they are almost persona non grata on our mental ‘balance sheets.’
            Furthermore, the axiom of never spending principle (living off of interest, dividends and capital gain distributions) – get over it. Living lifetime goals should take precedence (other than adequate spouse income should you predecease) over the lucky sperm & ovarian club progeny or one’s charitable legacy – even if invasion of principle. PS those restricted charitable legacy gifts have had a lurid history not being  unfulfilled and often redirected for other purposes and giving good lunch by the executive directors.

            So if one’s assets under management personal financial planner compensated planner says 2.62% or 3.60% withdrawal rate is all that is really sustainable or scares the crap out of you so you should buy single premium insurance annuities (forgetting Mutual Benefit Life rated A+++ and other top rated went out of business covered up by mergers i.e. New England Life, Connecticut Mutual etc)  remember the the inherent conflict of interest. Also, ask the planner, ‘do you have has clients in Trust companies that cater to personal financial planners? And do you have a stake in the Trust company? Lastly, as for the Single Premium Insurance Annuities evangelists, wasn’t it the insurance company actuaries (cpas without personalities) who also screwed up royally in the long term care market having not learned their lessons in the 80’s about lapse supported premiums – such that insurers are losing their tuchis, down to a few offering LTC, the premiums have skyrocketed and the coverage has been greatly reduced. So much for guarantees of insurers and ‘certainty.’

            And while you are at it, you might ask your dirty little secret asset under management compensated planner, if there are alternative fee arrangements relative to your engagement of his or her services.