Joseph's Dreams & Wall Street: Plumped Must Dump
Suddenly, 7 fat handsome cows emerged from the Nile…The, just as suddenly, 7 other cows emerged after them, very badly formed and emaciated…The emaciated bad cows proceeded to eat the first 7…They (the 7 fatted cows) were completely swallowed by the (emaciated cows)…The (emaciated) cows looked just as bad as they had at first.
Pharaoh relating his dream to Joseph, MiKetz 41:18-21
And thus the germination of the first Adkins’ diet.
Don’t have a cow
The Wall Street trading adage ‘bulls make money, bears make money, pigs make nothing’ omitted ‘plump and dump’ relative to cows and first wives “plump must dump’ every 7 years or so. Extrapolating there is the K9 modified adage, ‘pump, hump and dump’ but that’s another story.
Please God let there be another Oil Boom I promise not to piss it all away next time.
The 7 Fatted and 7 Emaciated cows is also a story of More vs Enough.
Money is merely a store of value. Money is goods and services. In 2007, 80% hamburger was about $1 a pound at Albertson’s (I know, I would wait for sales to buy for my dogs) Today one is lucky if on sale the hamburger is $2.49. Thus, $1 in 2007 bought 1 pound and in 2013, $1 buys 6.4 ounces! (The overall consumer ((misleading)) price index be damned)
It took the Nasdaq index 13 years to hit 4000 again. Taking a 3% compound inflation rate into account, today’s Nasdaq 4000 is really is 2724. On October 1, 2007, the Dow Jones Ave was 14087.55 on 10/1/2007 it took till 03/01/2013 for the Dow Jones to reach 14089.66 meaning a nominal rate of return of almost 0% for 5 years and 5 months to reach approximately the same level. However, factoring in a 3% inflation – the real Dow Jones Average was on 03/01/13 was 11,974!. And at today’s Dow Jones Avg of 16094 on 11/27/13, the nominal rate of return from 14087.55 on 10/1/2007 is 2.18%. Taking out inflation, one lost almost 1% per year not including the stomach churning and probable whip lash losses when the market went down to 6594.44 on 3/5/2009
We confuse the nominal – the fatted with the real – often the emaciated – and get slaughtered – plumped and dumped.
Still we seek More – thinking the fat will continue – and despite past assertions promising not to piss it away – this time.
And so The Pharaohs & today’s redistributive confiscating in the name of social justice Fairesses prey on emaciated times with the promise of hope and change which is really hoax and chump change.
Result – artificial stock market ‘nominal’ highs – pumping up the fatted cows with steroidal low interest rates. With these artificial counterfeit low interest rates, the money flows to the prettiest horse in the glue factory – the stock market or under the mattress and the fatted cow retains water a ticking time bomb for angioplasty or heart replacement (and Obamacare statins won’t help from these Pennsylvania Ave emaciated cows telling you to eat your veggies while they eat crème brulee.)
Plumped and Dumped!
“There comes a point in every man’s life when has to say; Enough is enough,” said Lance Armstrong proving Adlai Stevenson’s theory, “it is often easier to fight for principles than to live up to them.”
If one wants to minimize the risk of the 7 years of famine – the 7 emaciated cows – going on the Adkins diet – the question is not ‘how did I do relative to the Dow, which stock – which bond should I buy?’ The question is ‘what is enough’ regardless of those apparently never ending halcyon years – after tax, after inflation in real terms of goods and services (how much hamburger $1 can buy).
And Cowabungle, Buffalo Bob – that’s the Holy Cow!
Period! (unlike emaciating Obama Unaffordable Care-less.)
“He who knows he has enough is rich.