2.0 UPDATE Bimahs & Managing (Retirement) Goal During Rotation &

 This Tectonic Living & Market Shifts

See Measures for Update

Stipulating

          ENOUGH(sm) is aligning means with meaning to count© and thus derivatively Enough is managing goals primarily rather than assets which is secondary (but means)

          Per a game changing study 80% of the value of the S&P 500 stocks is now in patents, trademarks, trade secrets

 And subject to

• Required income needs – at the gotta, (essential) and oughta (discretionary) but not niceta levels
• Relative to a retirement goal – the amount as if 3 periods (typically with different amounts:
• the go go period, the slow go period, and the no go period.
• Measures
• Baseline (where at if do nothing) probability % of achieving the goal(s) per Monte Carlo;
• Monte Carlo trigger short fall % of success (The Monte Python i.e 80%) to readjust the goal(s)
• The desired Monte Carlo probability of success (The Full Monte) (which is subject to readjustment (i.e. amount of goal after tax, when start, duration, assumed after tax rate of return, and inflation) should the Monte Python trigger occur
•  

A Retirement Portfolio Idea Subject To The Above

          Musts before consideration of allocation

·         2-7 years of cash and near cash (remember Joseph and 7 fatter cows and 7 lean emaciated cows) –to minimize whipsawing the portfolio during large up and down swings in the market – resulting in panics – buying at the highs and selling at the lows not to mention the resulting anxiety.

·                Hopefully the home is free and clear – allowing the fallback if necessary to a maximized reverse mortgage annuity for income

Thereafter (to see if this works)

·         20% in tech mutual funds, etfs, etc

·         20% in health mutual funds, etfs

·         20% in value mutual funds, etfs

·         40% in dividend increasing stocks/mutual funds

 The concept:

·         Tech – yes, the valuations are out of sight but tech and rapid obsolescence is the new normal

·         Health – yes, regardless fears of regulation, everybody wants to go to heaven – nobody wants to die – even regulators (health actually is part ‘tech’)

·         20% Value – there is and will be rotation from tech and health and back again

·         40% Dividend increasing stocks, mutual funds, etfs – these are the new bonds.

 Now relative to the old 4% rule (if this is also used as a metric of what can be withdrawn with increases for inflation) – the % of withdrawal is subject to the aforementioned. Decreases (subject to the Measures aforementioned) would occur when the amount withdrawn becomes as a percentage 5% on the remaining assets (i.e. let’s say the portfolio goes down from $1 million to $800,000.) Thus, to bring the percentage back to 4%, the withdrawal amount might require a drop to $32,000 in income. An increase can occur if a 20% gain from the baseline $1 million to $1,200,000. Thus, the 4% (or $40,000) is now but 3.33% so the amount could go to $48,000.

A Story About Going Up and Going Down

           The President of the Temple/Shul often sits on the Bimah (the elevated podium/platform) with the Rabbi.

          Once the Shul President’s term was up and a new Shul President took the former’s place not just as President but also sitting on the Bimah with the Rabbi

          This change didn’t sit well with the old Shul President who made things difficult for the New President even though he knew the rules.

          The moral of the story – it is easier to up to the Bimah than come down from it aka The Bimah Schema

          It is easier to increase spending than to decrease it – regardless of whether in retirement one is in the go-go (pre Covid) phase, slow go, or no go phase of retirement.         

          All the above, of course, is subject to the cascade of the personal financial filter design and cascade previously stated - may make the 4% example unworkable anyway.

An interesting conceptual model to ask your planner about whether one is on the Bimah or not regardless of stage fright or stage one is in.